Defining the extent of suitable habitat for the endangered Maple-Leaf oak (Quercus acerifolia)

The Maple-leaf oak, Quercus acerifolia (E.J.Palmer) Stoynoff & Hess, is listed as Critically Imperiled by the State of Arkansas and considered endangered in IUCN Red List Threatened Oak Species. It endemic to interior highlands Ouachita Mountains west-central Arkansas, where it reported occur only four isolated locations. No specific research exists regarding predicted climate change impacts on Q. acerifolia, but given its small range habitat specificity, such change-driven will likely pose significant risks remaining populations. We used an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach predict climatically suitable for within native range. investigate how future changes may impact suitability. Currently, estimated area 2,523 km2. By 2050, 749 km2, a 70% reduction extent. 2100, model predicts 285 km2 or 89% loss present habitat. also 20 counties (14 six Oklahoma), including currently known locations Arkansas. Although rare at risk extinction due potential climate-change driven reduction, SDM identified several new areas species. New information can be search existing populations guide reintroduction efforts, leading enhanced focus long-term management, conservation, restoration this critically-imperiled